Wednesday 24 June 2020

Goodbye Olympus?


Purple Flower
Olympus E-M1, Sigma 60mm f2.8 DN Art

It was widely reported today that Olympus has made a deal to sell their camera division to JIP, an investment group best known for taking over Sony's VIAO PC brand and turning it from a global but unprofitable brand to a tiny but profitable brand.

What does this mean? IMHO, it means the likely death of Olympus as a widely available brand. Under Sony's ownership VIAO was everywhere. Today it's a niche brand that's basically gone from the global market. I expect much the same to happen to Olympus, possibly with a re-focus on the PEN line to concentrate on the Japanese home market, where Olympus is strongest and also where the PEN's actually sell.

I do not see Olympus disappearing, but rather becoming even more of a niche than it is today, and likely not one available in most camera stores. I'd also expect to see the end of the truly consumer items (OMD E-M10's mostly)

It's possible that they will successfully shift Olympus to a niche luxury brand, but I think that's unlikely overall, at least globally. They are more likely to be successful in the Asian market with this. Olympus missed the luxury boat about 3-5 years ago when they failed to expand on the PEN-F or update many of their mid-range small lenses with sealing to match the E-M5's. Frankly I think Fuji has that market locked up right now with the X-Pro's, although the reaction to the X-Pro3's OVF changes and controversial LCD design has created an opportunity in the next 18 months (as I expect an X-Pro4 iteration to take a step back towards the X-Pro2) 

This is a pity. I always found m43 to be a great system, and liked the results I got from the system for the most part. I left the system largely because I needed the extra RAW file flexibility that a larger sensor system provides, otherwise I'd still be shooting m43. The E-M5II + 9-18 was an almost ideal combo (it just needed a sealed 9-18 to be perfect). 

However Oly is overcharging for their newer bodies, and has been since the E-M1II was released, and that has limited their sales, along with the fact that new development basically stopped 3 years ago (we got a few bodies last year, all of which are basically re-hashed 2016 tech, but only one lens and a second one has been promised by MIA for 18 months). They're just not luxury enough to command a premium right now and that's one thing that you can't do halfway. The PEN-F was halfway (as it lacked features like weather sealing present in the OMD line).

What could Oly do?

1. A Pen-F II that takes the PEN-F frame, adds sealing, a top-end touch LCD and a best in class EVF (or even a dual-magnification Hybrid finder) and includes the E-M1III internals. Priced on par with the X-Pro3. 

2. Refresh all the f2/f1.8 primes with sealing, including optical updates on the mediocre 17mm.

3. Get a modern sensor and iterate the E-M1 and E-M5 on it ASAP. The PEN-F III should get the same sensor (the PEN-F II is an interim body with a lot of pre-existing engineering).

4. Price cut the E-M5III to be actually competitive. It needs to be the same cost or less than an X-T30.

Those moves would set the foundation for Olympus becoming a true niche brand and to compete against Fuji in this space. They need to take share from Fuji here, or at least position themselves as the alternate option for the luxury RF-style camera. 

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